In Essay 1 of the 2026 Iran War Series, we assessed the question: should we stay or should we go?

The impact of that decision extends far beyond the moment itself. It affects careers, capital, and long-term positioning—and it must be taken under conditions of extreme uncertainty and pressure.

The solution is not to decide better under pressure, but to decide in advance. To define thresholds, structure the trade-offs, and create a framework that can be applied when conditions deteriorate.

The Escalation Risk Assessment Framework was built with that purpose. It was designed in a single day, tested under missile attack the same night, and applied in real time as the situation evolved.

It did not prevent escalation. It prevented the wrong decision.